"We Do Not Have a Warning System"

 

        Flood gage on a Guadalupe River Crossing near Camp Mystic (Google Earth image).

Update: 51 confirmed dead, 27 still missing from Camp Mystic.

On Friday, July 4, extreme rainfall led to catastrophic flooding in Kerr County, Texas. Twenty-seven, including nine children, were confirmed dead and at least twenty-seven girls from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp, went missing.  An unknown number of others from other locations are missing. The search for them continues. 

 “People need to know today will be a hard day,” said Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring, Jr. “Please pray for our community.” 

According to AP News, the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in 45 minutes. National Weather Service and AccuWeather issued warnings of flash-flooding hours before the flood. Apparently, the messages didn't get to those who needed them. 

Judge Rob Kelly is Kerr Counties chief elected official and he said "We do not have a warning system." 

What they do have is president in Washington who does not respect scientists, or science, who has slashed jobs at the National Weather Service, and who has said he thinks climate change is a hoax. Climate scientists have warned of more extreme weather events  as the atmosphere warms and absorbs more water vapor. For every degree Celsius increase in atmospheric temperature, there is a 7 percent increase in water vapor content.  

The claim that politicians "had no warning," is absurd and irresponsible. From the photo above, it's clear that the road commission knew that river floods several feet over the road - and it's only going to get worse. 

Get those camps to higher ground and monitor weather alerts like lives depend on it.

Drill Baby Drill Update #4 and Australia Votes Labor Another Term

 

U.S rig counts are down for the week and year over year.

Baker Hughes publishes updates on on North American rotary oil and gas rigs weekly and International counts are updated once a month. As of their report for 2 May 2025, here are the numbers:

U.S. Rigs     584, down 3 from the previous week, down 21 from one year ago, 2 May 2024.

Canadian Rigs     120, down 8 from a week ago, unchanged from one year ago.

International (updated monthly) 891, down 8 from March, down 87 from March 2024.

Gas prices haven't moved much (see previous posts)

Gas Buddy publishes updated gasoline prices by state. Checking today's published prices, the median cost by state for a gallon of gasoline is $2.99. For the median price today, I'm using the Gas Buddy's published price of a gallon of gasoline in the 25th ranked state in their list of prices by state, ranked from lowest to  highest. Mississippi had the lowest price $2.62 and California the highest at $4.72.

Australia voted to give their center-left Labor Party leader, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, a second term as the Liberal (liberal in name only) candidate Peter Dutton not only lost his national election bid, but also his seat in Parliament. Dutton, earlier in his campaign, aligned himself with Trump but, late in the campaign scrambled to distance himself from the U.S. president. "DOGY-y Dutton" was one brand applied to Dutton who, like Trump, called for massive cuts to government services and civil servant jobs. From the BBC article linked above,

"Dutton's own inconsistent policies and the Trump-esque rhetoric and decisions appear to have driven away an electorate that is deeply concerned about a new, tumultuous world order."

Labor parties now lead the governments of Great Britain (Keir Starmer), Canada (Mark Carney) and Australia (Anthony Albanese).

Drill Baby Drill Update 3

 

The above figure comes from Baker Huges, which has been keeping track of active oil and gas rigs since 1944. This past week, U.S. Rig counts dropped again, indicating that "drill baby drill," as a policy, is yet to be implemented. Lower prices for oil also reduce incentives for drilling new wells. Oil companies want to make money. 

According to Gasbuddy.com, the median price of a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. is $3.01, which is down slightly from a week ago. 

Update 2 of Drill Baby Drill

 

Following up on the previous post, Baker Hughes publishes updates on on North American rotary oil and gas rigs weekly and International counts are updated once a month. As of this report, the the U.S. has 590 rigs, down 3 from the previous report.  Canadian and International rig counts are also down. Not surprisingly, gasoline prices have gone up.

Gas Buddy publishes updated gasoline prices by state. Checking today's published prices, the median cost by state for a gallon of gasoline is $3.09, up 12 cents (4 percent) form $2.97 in the previous update. For the median price, I'm using the Gas Buddy's published price of a gallon of gasoline in the 25th ranking state in their list of prices by state, ranked from lowest to  highest. 

So far, President Trump's policies have not added to the drill rig count and gasoline prices have gone up, not down. (Above figure is from Baker Hughes).

Update on Drill Baby Drill

 

Baker Hughes publishes updates on on North American rotary oil and gas rigs weekly and International counts are updated once a month. This past week, the U.S added one rig while in Canada, 19 rigs were apparently shut down. Is the reduction in Canadian drilling due to the economic conflict over tariffs the Trump administration has chosen to take up against a neighbor? 

Gas Buddy publishes updated gasoline prices by state. Checking today's published prices, the median cost for a gallon is $2.97. 

Are oil companies anticipating an economic slowdown? Is "Drill Baby Drill" off and running or off the table, for now?

Jan 6 Rioter Describes Booze Soaked Radicalization

 New Hampshire Public Radio has this fascinating interview with Jason Riddle, who served 90 days in jail following the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Mr. Riddle, who has rejected a pardon from Trump, describes the personal circumstances that contributed to his MAGA radicalization: 

"I'm a recovering alcoholic. At the time, I was not recovering. I would combine alcohol with my politics and I'd put it online too. I spent a lot of time on social media in the comments section arguing with strangers about nothing. And it just became more or less my identity. The less I had a life, the louder I was about being a Trump supporter. And instead of trying to figure out what was causing these problems, looking at myself, I blamed other people and politics. That's easy to do. And I fit right into the MAGA circle"

The interview offers a glimpse of the riot from a rioter's perspective and how he was treated as something of a celebrity in jail - by other inmates and by staff. Courage, common sense, and sober reflection seem to have turned him away from the MAGA movement.

Does the Media Go Easy on Trump's Mental Health?

           Trump rolls out his golden sneakers merch, available for $399.  (MSN photo credit)

In a recent opinion piece by professor, author and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, Reich suggests the media is not sufficiently reporting on Trump's questionable mental health. Reich is not alone in his concern for Trump's mental stability. 

A leading psychiatrist, Dr. Lance Dodes says the evidence for Trump's dementia is overwhelming. Former Johns Hopkins University Medical School professor and psychologist John Gartner, has said Trump is "showing unmistakable signs strongly suggesting dementia." 

Trump's own father Fred suffered from dementia.

Although not a psychiatrist or psychologist, former Trump aide Omarosa Manigault Newman advisor wrote in her book Unhinged that Trump, while in office, was suffering serious mental decline falling "from quick-thinking Apprentice host to a lonely, befuddled president who rattles around the White house with rage and confusion."  

That seems to match up pretty well with Trump's current public statements and behavior.